A frequently used approach to modelling the marketing mix involves estimating the baseline sales, i.e. the sales volume expected in the absence of in-store promotions.
Sales Volume ≡ Baseline Volume + Incremental Volume
Baseline Sales or Base Volume is a function of manufacturers’ marketing actions such as:
A variety of techniques ranging from smoothing functions to econometric methods are used for developing baselines such as the one depicted in Exhibit 34.2.
Incremental Volume specifically means contemporaneous, immediate gains (lifts) resulting from in-store causal factors such as:
Note however that this two stage approach, as outlined in Exhibit 34.3, assumes no interaction effects between manufacturer-to-consumer initiatives driving the baseline and retailer-to-consumer (in-store) influences.
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