The Parfitt–Collins Model

Parfitt–Collins model was first presented at the 1961 ESOMAR Congress by Baum and Dennis, and subsequently by John Parfitt and Barry Collins  at the 1967 MRS Conference.

Using real data from a household panel, the model estimates market share with these three metrics:

  • Cumulative brand penetration (cumulative brand trail).
  • Repeat purchasing rates.
  • Buying Index or the heaviness of buying.

Market Share = Trial×Repeat×BI


  • Trial: Projected proportion of homes that would try the new product.
  • Repeat: Projected proportion of those who continue to repurchase the brand after having tried it.
  • BI: Buying index of repeat purchases, in terms of weight of purchase.
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TRB Share Prediction Model

TRB Share Prediction Model

TRB Model for predicting Market Share